All scenarios / Human-made
Societal Collapse
Mad Max, but the gas is $9 a gallon first.
What it is
Societal collapse is the slow version of the end: institutions stop working, states fail, trade breaks down and life becomes local, poor and violent. Historians have studied many such collapses, from the Bronze Age to Rome. They rarely have a single cause. Debt, war, climate stress and political breakdown usually pile up together.
Why it ranks where it does
The IMF warns that the world economy is nearing the "limits of resilience". At the same time, conflicts are spreading. A new rebel alliance seized airports in northern Ethiopia in late September. This score reflects stress from many sources rather than a single trigger, which is why it sits just below the shocks that could set off a collapse.
Evidence on the board
- IMF warns the world economy is nearing the 'limits of resilience'. Ground News ↗
- A new rebel alliance seized airports in northern Ethiopia in late September. ZeroFox ↗
What the experts say
Collapse is hard to measure because it can unfold over decades. Researchers who study it point to falling state capacity, inequality and resource strain as warning signs, but most don't expect a global collapse in the near term. Regional collapses are far more common.
What would move the number
Up
- Several state failures at the same time
- A breakdown in global trade or finance
- Mass displacement from climate or war
Down
- Conflicts ending
- Economic recovery and debt relief for fragile states
Live signals we track
The baseline above is set from the evidence as of October 13, 2026. On the live board, your browser adjusts it in real time using these feeds. Chatter can only nudge a score in proportion to its evidence, so attention alone can't make an unlikely scenario look likely.
- Public attention: daily Wikipedia pageviews for Societal collapse
- Online chatter: Hacker News stories mentioning "civil war" this week vs. the prior eight weeks
Sources
- Wikipedia: Societal collapse
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse - Ground News
https://ground.news/article/imf-world-economic-outlook-warns-global-economy-could-soon-test-the-limits-of-resilience - ZeroFox
https://www.zerofox.com/intelligence/monthly-geopolitical-report-october-2026/
Baseline scores are an editorial threat index from 0 to 100 that combines current reporting with published expert estimates. They're meant for comparing risks, not as actuarial forecasts. See how the numbers work.