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All scenarios / Cosmic & speculative

The Rapture

Prediction markets are pricing it in. We have questions.

Evidence baseline0.30%
Snapshot rank#19 of 32
See the live number →

What it is

The Rapture is a belief held by some Christian traditions that believers will be taken up to heaven at the end times, followed by a period of tribulation on Earth. Many denominations interpret the end times differently or reject the Rapture as a doctrine.

Why it ranks where it does

We include it for completeness and because it has an actual prediction market: Polymarket trades a contract on whether Jesus Christ returns before 2027. The score moves with that market's price. Market prices on events like this partly reflect betting quirks and the cost of tying up money, not just what traders believe, so we weight it lightly.

Evidence on the board

What the experts say

This is a matter of faith, not evidence, so we don't claim to measure it scientifically. Many dates have been predicted for the end times over the centuries, and so far all of them have passed.

Why it's on the board

The point of including belief-based scenarios is completeness. A board that claims to list how the world could end would look odd without one of the most widely known end-times stories in Western culture. It's also a useful test of the method. When an event has no physical mechanism we can measure, the only honest signal is how people are betting, so that's all we show. History offers perspective: groups that predicted specific dates, such as the Millerites in 1844 or Harold Camping in 2011, all saw those dates pass.

What would move the number

Up

  • The market price rising

Down

  • The market price falling, or the contract resolving

Live signals we track

The baseline above is set from the evidence as of October 13, 2026. On the live board, your browser adjusts it in real time using these feeds. Chatter can only nudge a score in proportion to its evidence, so attention alone can't make an unlikely scenario look likely.

Sources

  1. Wikipedia: Rapture
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapture
  2. Polymarket: Jesus Christ returns before 2027
    https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027

Baseline scores are an editorial threat index from 0 to 100 that combines current reporting with published expert estimates. They're meant for comparing risks, not as actuarial forecasts. See how the numbers work.