All scenarios / Biological
Global Pandemic
You remember 2020. It remembers you.
What it is
A global pandemic is a new or re-emerging disease spreading worldwide faster than we can contain it. COVID-19 showed how quickly one virus can reach every country. A pathogen that's both highly transmissible and much deadlier would be far worse.
Why it ranks where it does
The WHO reports a Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the DRC with 8,978 confirmed cases and 4,336 deaths as of October 10. An OECD report cites studies putting the chance of another COVID-scale pandemic within 25 years at about one in two. A mysterious pneumonia death of a Russian lab worker got a lot of attention, though experts say it's unlikely to spark a pandemic. We follow prediction markets on whether a new pandemic will be declared.
Evidence on the board
- Bundibugyo Ebola in the DRC: 8,978 confirmed cases and 4,336 deaths as of Oct 10. WHO ↗
- Studies put the odds of another COVID‑scale pandemic within 25 years at about one in two. OECD ↗
- Experts say a Russian lab worker's mystery pneumonia death is unlikely to spark a pandemic. PolitiFact ↗
What the experts say
Toby Ord puts the risk of a natural pandemic causing an existential catastrophe at about 1 in 10,000 per century. A pandemic causing mass death without ending civilization is much more likely. Ebola spreads through bodily fluids rather than the air, which limits how far it can travel, and that's the main reason this score isn't higher.
What would move the number
Up
- Ebola cases confirmed outside Central Africa
- A new respiratory virus with sustained human-to-human spread
- The WHO declaring a pandemic emergency
Down
- The DRC outbreak declining
- Vaccine rollout in the affected regions
- Prediction-market odds falling
Live signals we track
The baseline above is set from the evidence as of October 13, 2026. On the live board, your browser adjusts it in real time using these feeds. Chatter can only nudge a score in proportion to its evidence, so attention alone can't make an unlikely scenario look likely.
- Prediction market: New pandemic declared in 2026, 4.5% at snapshot Polymarket ↗
- Prediction market: New pandemic before 2028, 12.5% at snapshot Polymarket ↗
- Prediction market: Ebola pandemic in 2026, 2.2% at snapshot Polymarket ↗
- Public attention: daily Wikipedia pageviews for Pandemic
- Public attention: daily Wikipedia pageviews for Ebola
- Online chatter: Hacker News stories mentioning "pandemic" this week vs. the prior eight weeks
Sources
- 80,000 Hours: Toby Ord's existential risk estimates
https://80000hours.org/articles/existential-risks/ - Wikipedia: Pandemic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic - WHO
https://www.who.int/emergencies/alert-and-response - OECD
https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2026/09/planning-ahead-for-the-next-pandemic_7013b712/c5602a1c-en.pdf - PolitiFact
https://politifact.com/article/2026/oct/12/russia-pneumonic-plague-lab-worker-death-pandemic/ - Polymarket: New pandemic declared in 2026
https://polymarket.com/event/new-pandemic-in-2026 - Polymarket: New pandemic before 2028
https://polymarket.com/event/new-pandemic-before-2028 - Polymarket: Ebola pandemic in 2026
https://polymarket.com/event/ebola-pandemic-in-2026
Baseline scores are an editorial threat index from 0 to 100 that combines current reporting with published expert estimates. They're meant for comparing risks, not as actuarial forecasts. See how the numbers work.